{"service":"prediction-market intelligence","venues":[{"key":"polymarket","name":"Polymarket","money_type":"real","money_type_meaning":"real-money market (capital at risk)","enabled":true,"keyed":false,"attribution":"Data from Polymarket (Gamma API); on-chain USDC markets on Polygon.","hosts":{"gamma":"https://gamma-api.polymarket.com","data_api":"https://data-api.polymarket.com","clob":"https://clob.polymarket.com"},"hosts_note":"keyless public Polymarket hosts (index on-chain USDC markets on Polygon) powering /prediction/market, /prediction/trending, /prediction/trades and /prediction/prices (clob = CLOB odds/price history)"},{"key":"manifold","name":"Manifold","money_type":"play","money_type_meaning":"play-money market (virtual currency; NOT real money)","enabled":true,"keyed":false,"attribution":"Data from Manifold Markets (per-query metadata + link-back); PLAY-money (mana), not real-money bets."},{"key":"metaculus","name":"Metaculus","money_type":"forecast","money_type_meaning":"forecasting platform (community/AI predictions; not money)","enabled":true,"keyed":true,"attribution":"Forecasts from Metaculus (community/AI forecasts); not money.","configured":false,"note":"optional keyed source; no token configured => omitted from results"},{"key":"kalshi","name":"Kalshi","money_type":"real","money_type_meaning":"real-money market (capital at risk)","enabled":false,"keyed":false,"attribution":null,"excluded":true,"excluded_reason":"Excluded per the Kalshi Developer Agreement: §3.1 forbids collecting, caching, aggregating, storing and sharing market data with third parties without written permission; §3.7 forbids sublicensing; API use is 'expressly limited to facilitating a member's own trading'. Reselling normalized Kalshi data through this x402 API would violate that ToS."}],"consensus_weighting":{"real":1.0,"forecast":0.6,"play":0.3},"event_matching":{"method":"deterministic rapidfuzz token_set_ratio over normalized titles + resolve-date proximity (no LLM)","score_min":72,"date_max_days":45},"invariants":["every market carries its money_type (real/play/forecast) — a play-money (mana) probability must never be read as a real-money bet","forecast divergence is disagreement between venues, NOT a tradeable arbitrage","data about markets only — no trading, no resolution oracle","the recent-trade feed is PII-stripped: only a pseudonymous on-chain wallet + trade facts (side/size/price/time/outcome/tx) are returned — never a trader's name, pseudonym, bio or avatar"],"disclaimer":"Prediction-market data and forecast signals, not financial advice; probabilities are market-implied, not guarantees."}